Chart of the Year: Keep On Running

A very Happy New Year from all of us in the multi-asset solutions team. Since we’re at that time when we reflect on the past year, and look ahead to the new one, I thought I’d shake up the Chart of the Week format a little and select my own Chart of the Year.

This is a chart from July, although we’ve updated the data for the current bull market. It shows that since 1972, bull markets in global equities (as represented by the MSCI World index) have lasted longer and produced higher returns than bear markets. The average bear market has returned -27% and lasted about 12 months, while the average bull market has returned 97% and lasted about 2.9 years.

The most recent bear market, which started on 8th December 2021, led to a decline of 15.7%. While different methodologies will present different dates for the start of the current bull market, for the purposes of this chart we’ll treat it as having begun on 16th June 2022. Since then, the bull market has returned 54.7% (to 31st December 2024) and if it’s in line with the historic averages we’ve highlighted, then we believe it still has further to run.

Key takeaway: while past performance is not a guarantee of future returns, history can certainly provide grounds for optimism.

‍

Find out more about our multi-asset solution

‍

‍

This article is provided for general information purposes only and should not be construed as personal financial advice to invest in any fund or product. These are the investment manager’s views at the time of writing and should not be construed as investment advice. The opinions expressed are correct at time of writing and may be subject to change. Capital is at risk. The value and income from investments can go down as well as up and are not guaranteed. An investor may get back significantly less than they invest. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future performance and should not be the sole factor considered when selecting funds.